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ASPEN AND THE ROARING FORK VALLEY - YEAR END ANALYSIS

Tuesday, February 12th, 2013 at 8:45pm Engel & Völkers Aspen | Roaring Fork

Portfolio ascertained some interesting statistics following our year end analysis of the real estate market here in Aspen and the Roaring Fork Valley.  Nearly all of the markets experienced significant increases in the number of sales compared to 2011, with the exception of Snowmass Village, which remained flat year over year.  For the most part the average prices fell slightly but have likely bottomed out.  Our results are detailed by area below.

Aspen

Total sales for Aspen real estate increased by 16.75% from 191 sales in 2011 to 223 sales in 2012.  There was a 1.15% increase in the total dollar volume to $743,753,840.  There were 89 sales with an average price of $6,089,307 and an average price per square foot of $1,131.37.  Compared to 2011, the average price dropped by 5.7% but the average price per square foot increased by 4.3%.  The statistics by subarea greatly vary, so contact us to obtain a more specific analysis of the area where you are interested in selling or buying a home.

The breakdown in price ranges for Aspen properties are as follows: 43 sales with values up to $5 million, 46 sales with values between $5-10 million, and 16 sales with values over $10 million.

The Aspen condo market experienced about the same percentage increase with 74 sales in 2011 and 97 in 2012.  In 2012, the average sales price of a condo was $1,028,928 with an average price per square foot of $896.16 whereas in 2011, the average sales price was $1,332,008 and the average price per square foot was $1,029.24.

Snowmass Village

In Snowmass there were 82 sales in 2011 and in 2012.  There was a decrease in dollar volume of 37.93% from $157,288,826 to $114,035,017.  One of the reasons for this significant decrease is that there was a very large sale of $27,500,000 in 2011.  Compare this with the highest sale in 2012 of only $8,500,000.

There were 24 single-family sales in 2012 versus 25 in 2011.  In 2012 the average price was $3,514,875 with an average price per square foot of $676.51 versus 2011’s $4,218,460 average price and $820.89 price per square foot.
The condo market had a slight increase in sales, up by 5 to 49 from 44.  The average sales price was $617,725 or $572.08 per square foot.  There were a number of short sales and foreclosed condos in the Snowmass market that reduced sales prices.  In 2011 the average sales price was $727,175 with an average price per square foot of $612.20.

Upvalley Land Sales

Aspen land sales increased by over 300% in 2012 with a total of 37 sales compared to only 11 in 2011.  The highest price for vacant land in 2011 was $3,300,000 compared with the high of $15,500,000 in 2012.  It is hard to say whether the purchasers of these 37 lots are end users or developers, but we believe the majority are end users.

Basalt

Basalt experienced a 33.6% increase in the number of real estate sales.  There were 125 sales in 2011 compared to 167 in 2012; the dollar volume increased by 22.31% from $68,646,408 to $83,964,152.

There was also a significant increase in single-family home sales, which were up by 31 to 97 compared to only 66 in 2011.  However, the average price decreased from $742,219 to $636,048 in 2012.  This caused the average price per square foot to decrease from $273.21 to $251.28.  The decrease in average price is mostly attributable to foreclosures and short sales in Basalt and the mid-valley.

Basalt condo sales increased from 24 in 2011 to 30 in 2012.  There was a slight increase in the average sales price that went from $282,825 to $290,963 and the average square foot price that went from $251.24 to $253.24.

Carbondale

Carbondale had the highest increase in sales, which nearly doubled.  There were 91 sales in 2011 compared to 176 in 2012 – an increase of 93.41%.  The dollar volume also increased significantly: up 49.589% from $56,275,844 in 2011 to $84,176,888 in 2012.

The total number of single-family sales increased from 57 to 113 with an average price of $598,680 and an average price per square foot of $183.34. This is a significant decrease in the averages from 2011.  In 2011 the average price was $707,430 with an average price per square foot of $220.33.

There were noteworthy increases in sales in both Aspen Glen and River Valley Ranch.  For Aspen Glen there were only 5 sales in 2011 but there were 18 in 2012.  In River Valley Ranch there were 14 sales in 2011 and 20 in 2012.

Looking Ahead

Based on our experience and analysis, the real estate market in the Roaring Fork Valley should begin to see an improvement in values. The existing inventory of Aspen real estate decreased considerably last year as the more desirable properties were purchased.  Prices have bottomed out and we should start see some appreciation, but on a much healthier level.  So long as interest rates remain low and there are no major economic crises, Aspen real estate should continue to be a great investment.  From a historical standpoint, there is great value in Aspen right now and it is a good time to buy.

We believe that the increase in land sales shows that developers feel it is time to bring new product onto the market and that the margins make sense again.  It also shows that end users are not satisfied with the existing inventory and have decided to build new homes instead.

As to Snowmass, we should start to see some improvement in 2013 because the Base Village foreclosure and related litigation settled and the developer is breaking ground this spring to continue construction of this major mixed use development.  The litigation surrounding the Viceroy condominiums was also resolved and sales of the Viceroy Hotel condominiums have picked up considerably.   However, prices will likely hold steady due to the high levels of inventory in Snowmass.

The average prices for real estate in the mid-valley should see a slight uptick in 2013 as the inventory dries up.  In the last few years the sale prices mid-valley were lower than actual values because of so many short sales and foreclosures.  Moving forward the number of short sales and foreclosures is decreasing and where there are such sales, banks are seeing multiple offers and bidding up above list price. It is common for properties to go under contract immediately in these scenarios.  This shows that the inventory has dried up and that demand is starting to increase.

If you have questions about your home or a specific market segment, call us to obtain a more detailed analysis as the foregoing is based on general areas.

The Berg Team made a major change this year by forming Portfolio Aspen Properties, which is located at 450 S. Galena St, #204, Aspen, Colorado, just one block from the gondola, above the popular music venue Belly Up.  We are a full service Aspen real estate brokerage firm that assists clients with buying Aspen properties, selling Aspen properties or renting luxury Aspen estates.  We look forward to serving you in 2013.  Please call us at 970-925-8400 to assist you.

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